Can the future forever be COVID-free?
In May of 2020, a period when COVID-19 was in its tender age, it was reported that if a person had contracted the virus, on average, they would spread it to two or three other people. Those two or three people would, on average, spread it to another set of two or three people. So on and so forth. Research showed that 1 out of every 200 people, who were infected by the virus, died. Surprisingly enough, in one year this virus killed over 2 Million people globally. But can we get a second bite at the cherry?
A true eradication of the Coronavirus would require a global effort. While there is no single trail to disease elimination, there are four factors which when controlled and monitored effectively can certainly reduce the number of symptomatic people, if not eradicate the virus completely.
The first and the most obvious solution is the “Vaccines”. Although, in the early days whenever mankind was hit with a devastating epidemic, vaccine development, testing, and regulating was a tedious task to carry out. However, with the advanced technologies, we have developed effective vaccines in record time. Thus, it would be fair to rule out the first factor.
Moving on, the challenge here is to break the chain of infection, leaving us to our second factor which in terms of epidemiology is referred to as “Animal Vectors”. Research shows that the COVID-19 virus was originated in bats, meaning that there is a way for it to spread from animals to human beings. Hypothetically, yet hopefully, even if we were to eradicate the virus from the entire human population, it could reappear just as it did for the first time.
The human-to-human vector is yet another hurdle. Unlike the traditional plagues, a person can be a carrier of the COVID-19 virus even before qualifying as symptomatic, thus making it extremely hard to trace the virus. Additionally, research shows that some carriers do not show any symptoms at all. We clearly are not capable enough in the means of technology, to show any dominance over something untraceable to such extent. Consequently, the contact tracing and isolation factor can be deemed futile.
Lastly, the global cooperation standpoint is another factor to analyze. By imposing bans on the export of protective gear and vital medicine, a significant amount of countries have demonstrated a nationalist approach towards the pandemic. In a meeting held in September 2020, the UN secretary-general António Guterres said
“The pandemic is a clear test of international cooperation- a test that we have essentially failed”.
With the availability of vaccines, richer countries are placing orders in massive volumes, leaving behind the poorer countries. This can cause the virus to mutate as it gets time to spread in the countries with the unavailability of vaccines.
In sum, COVID-19 is not an appropriate contender for complete elimination. However, it is highly plausible that COVID-19 will eventually shape into a disease that can be dealt with by means of annual vaccination as people build immunity to it. It is far from a gratifying answer, but it is a reality we all will learn to be comfortable with.
